Key Takeaways

  • Omdia forecasts 5.9 billion cellular IoT connections by 2035, driven by NB-IoT, mMTC, and eRedCap
  • Europe's Cyber Resilience Act and major US infrastructure programs are reshaping deployment priorities
  • Automotive IoT is set to reach 1.2 billion connections by 2035, with 5G dominating new vehicle modules

Omdia’s June 24 analysis projects cellular IoT connectivity will reach 5.9 billion connections by 2035, powered by 5G RedCap, eRedCap, 5G Massive IoT, and LTE Cat-1bis.

The IEEE indicates in its networking research that low-power wide-area cellular technologies scale faster than earlier machine-type communications, especially once standalone 5G networks reach critical mass. McKinsey's IoT adoption studies show enterprise buyers gradually shifting toward higher-capability modules when the price gap narrows. Statista also tracks long-term expansion in connected device usage across industrial and automotive sectors.

NB-IoT, mMTC, and eRedCap are expected to comprise 65% of all cellular IoT connections by 2035. Omdia expects eRedCap to be more successful than RedCap. Pricing for eRedCap modules is launching at a lower baseline, and supporting 5G Standalone coverage is expanding across major markets. RedCap adoption was previously limited by high module prices and slower 5G Standalone rollouts.

RedCap adoption showed promise during the past year following its integration into the latest Apple Watch models. This consumer-oriented deployment signaled to module vendors that premium wearables utilize reduced-capability 5G, prompting operators and suppliers to accelerate deployment timelines, though Omdia notes eRedCap carries the stronger outlook.

Across Asia and Oceania, NB-IoT remains dominant, accounting for 86% of global NB-IoT module shipments in 2025. This reflects sustained government-backed deployments in utilities and public infrastructure. Asia and Oceania are also projected to capture 58% of the LTE-M module market share by 2035.

In Europe, the Cyber Resilience Act requires secure-by-design hardware and multi-year vulnerability patching. This regulatory framework pushes device makers toward eSIM and eUICC technologies that support remote lifecycle management.

In North America, the US Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act and the Inflation Reduction Act are funding smart grid modernization, utilities automation, and EV charging networks. These categories utilize ruggedized 4G and 5G modules, driving commercial volume for suppliers like Telit Cinterion and Quectel.

A senior analyst for IoT at Omdia ties these shifts to broader ecosystem maturity. With 5G Standalone widely deployed and lower pricing expected from the start, eRedCap avoids the hurdles RedCap initially faced. Companies in several industrial sectors increasingly select technologies based on total cost of ownership rather than peak throughput alone.

Automotive IoT connections are projected to reach 1.2 billion by 2035, increasing the sector's share of cellular IoT from 13% to 21%. Roughly 89% of new automotive modules will rely on 5G technologies. Automakers are converging on cellular-first strategies, and V2X applications require consistent, low-latency connectivity. Gartner notes in its mobility research that automotive connectivity creates network effects, where each additional service layer reinforces the value of the platform. Reliable wide-area connectivity provides the underlying infrastructure for software-defined vehicles.

Cellular IoT data traffic is projected to reach 218.6 exabytes by 2035, reflecting increased device counts and more complex applications. Ericsson estimates the market will reach 4.5 billion cellular IoT connections at the end of 2025 and 8 billion by 2031, with Broadband and Critical IoT representing 2.6 billion connections in 2025.

The variety of connectivity options, including NB-IoT, LTE-M, Cat-1bis, RedCap, and eRedCap, gives enterprises flexibility for specific use cases. As deployments scale, organizations are prioritizing multigenerational continuity to ensure long-term hardware support. Regional adoption patterns and targeted infrastructure investments indicate the next decade of cellular IoT expansion will rely on sector-specific module deployments rather than a single unified standard.